Image from source, International Herald Tribune
The big question in politics this week is, "why is Barack Obama not improving in the polls?" Pointing to the low approval ratings of George W. Bush--often cited as one of the worst Presidents in US history--and other factors, the pundit class thinks this is a Democratic year. Big wins are predicted in the Senate and House. So why is Obama only a few percentage points ahead of John McCain?
Let me take a stab at it, because I believe I have the answer. Over the last sixteen years, voters have become increasingly polarized. There may have always been "die-hard Democrats" and "resolute Republicans," but there used to be a vast middle ground. Not anymore. These days, those two groups have swollen to encompass most of the electorate.
I don't fit in either group, but then I rarely do. Multiple choice questions always frustrate me, because my option is usually between a) and b), or c) with a little d). But I defected from the Republican party in 1992 after the incendiary Pat Buchanan speech at the convention. I could have been turned back along the way, but the tone of Buchanan's speech has only been magnified in the ensuing years. I'm a Democrat by default, because I find the current Republican party offensive in nearly every way.
And in those two paragraphs, you have your answer. You have people who count their political identity as a defining feature of their personality. They can't change their party any more than they can change their sexual orientation. Then, you have people like me who are so viscerally opposed to the other party, they cannot in good conscience vote for anything but their default party. Barack Obama is only up by a handful of percentage points because that is all that is left.
How'd I do?
[Excerpt]
Why is Obama not improving in the polls?
It is a question that has hovered over Senator Barack Obama even as he has passed milestone after milestone in his race for the White House: Why is he not doing better?
