Nate Silver is OUT Magazine's Person of the Year

Image from Out Magazine.

Number-crunching election wizard Nate Silver was, for a time, my island of sanity in the choppy waters after the first presidential debate. Remember that? Against all odds, after President Obama's lackluster performance, Mitt Romney's star started to shine. A legend was built that Romney was a-mah-zing in the debate (he wasn't), and that he had momentum (he didn't). Nate Silver was almost alone in his quiet, calm assertion: it's all cool. Yes, Romney had ticked up, but it was a ripple, not a tidal wave. Barring a game changing event, Obama would win, and win handily. The rest of the debates went well, but the punditry was all, "Mittmentum!" Nate was still serene. Ultimately, he'd predicted exactly how the election would go, to the state.

So, Nate Silver is now a star. The whole country is going to be paying attention to him in 2014 and especially 2016. I don't know what he's going to do to keep himself busy in the meantime, but for sure he can write his own ticket.

[Excerpt]

Nate Silver: Person of the Year

. . .For months in the run-up to the election, Silver, editor of FiveThirtyEight, a blog hosted by The New York Times, had been analyzing the polling data and calmly explaining, to the contempt of pundits on Fox and the gratitude of viewers of MSNBC, why Obama had the election sewn up. His quiet confidence—he bet Joe Scarborough $2,000 that the president would win re-election— attracted fans and haters alike.. . .

Read more at: Out

Greenlee Gazette's Election Predictions

I'm am not a soothsayer, though I've had a psychic moment or two in my life (said as an atheist, so take that for what it's worth). But I'm a student of politics, and have been following it very closely over these last several years, and I can play a hunch. I live in Las Vegas after all. So here is my gut feeling for how this election is going to go down. First, my hopeful, happy-clappy feeling:

Click to embiggen. Map Made at Huffington Post.

In that scenario, Obama wins 8 of 9 swing states, which is possibly a bit far-fetched, but not impossible. I don't fully expect this, but I'd like to see it. I suspect it's possible that Obama will lose Florida in a squeaker (or worse), possibly New Hampshire, maybe Colorado? In a worst-case scenario (barring losing the whole shebang, this is how I'd call it:

Click to embiggen. Map made at Huffington Post.

That's probably more realistic, but I'd take anything between these two scenarios. I've got a fierce wiggins grabbing me about shenanigans in Ohio, which is not crucial to Obama (though it is for Romney), but is important. I'm pretty sure Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all good.  Of course, I could be a victim of wishful thinking. Hoping not.

As for the rest of the elections, I'm just hoping for the best. The fact that America is likely going to retain a majority-Republican House of Representatives makes zero sense logically. The obstructionist, tea bagging, batshit crazy members of the Congress are so unpalatable, their likely wins cast a pall upon the intelligence of the voting public. I'll be heartened if some of the nuttier ones like Michele Bachmann and Joe Walsh lose their seats. I'll be very happy if Senator Scott Brown loses to Elizabeth Warren.  I'll be thrilled to see Paul Ryan lose both the Vice Presidency and his House seat.

My gut tells me Obama's going to win. My inner milquetoast Democrat is worried, all the same. I think we're going to keep a Democratic Senate (with a slight bump up or down, either way), and still be miles away from winning the House, which will remain obstructionist and looney-tunes. As I said, I'm an atheist, so I don't pray, or really believe in "luck" or "kismet" or "fate." But I'm hoping with all of my crossable parts crossed!

Nate Silver's Election Eve 538 Forecast

OMG!!! 

What would cause me to use a 12-year-old's exclamation? Nate Silver, the wunderkind statistician--so good at what he does the New York Times absorbed his FiveThirtyEight.com--has revised his election eve figures. And the news is awesome if you're a Barack Obama supporter. Nate's figures have been an oasis in a desert of bad news during the post-Denver debate, and a continuing boost of confidence during what has been relentlessly called a very tight race. Take a look:

Pretty sweet, right? I mean, that doesn't exactly look like a squeaker, does it? In fact, it makes me feel much, much better. So much, that I might be able to sleep tonight.

Now, I'm not going to get over-confident, and declare that this sucker is over. I mean there are several things to note:

- Even Nate Silver says an 8.6% chance that Romney wins is still a chance. It isn't impossible.

- Nate himself could have gotten overconfident, or forgotten to carry a 2 somewhere.

- Voter suppression efforts in Ohio, Florida and elsewhere could have caused erosion in the vote that doesn't show up in the polls.

- This kind of prediction--if taken too much to heart--could discourage people from bothering to vote. So VOTE!

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com