Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Greenlee Gazette's Election Predictions

I'm am not a soothsayer, though I've had a psychic moment or two in my life (said as an atheist, so take that for what it's worth). But I'm a student of politics, and have been following it very closely over these last several years, and I can play a hunch. I live in Las Vegas after all. So here is my gut feeling for how this election is going to go down. First, my hopeful, happy-clappy feeling:

Click to embiggen. Map Made at Huffington Post.
In that scenario, Obama wins 8 of 9 swing states, which is possibly a bit far-fetched, but not impossible. I don't fully expect this, but I'd like to see it. I suspect it's possible that Obama will lose Florida in a squeaker (or worse), possibly New Hampshire, maybe Colorado? In a worst-case scenario (barring losing the whole shebang, this is how I'd call it:

Click to embiggen. Map made at Huffington Post.

That's probably more realistic, but I'd take anything between these two scenarios. I've got a fierce wiggins grabbing me about shenanigans in Ohio, which is not crucial to Obama (though it is for Romney), but is important. I'm pretty sure Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all good.  Of course, I could be a victim of wishful thinking. Hoping not.

As for the rest of the elections, I'm just hoping for the best. The fact that America is likely going to retain a majority-Republican House of Representatives makes zero sense logically. The obstructionist, tea bagging, batshit crazy members of the Congress are so unpalatable, their likely wins cast a pall upon the intelligence of the voting public. I'll be heartened if some of the nuttier ones like Michele Bachmann and Joe Walsh lose their seats. I'll be very happy if Senator Scott Brown loses to Elizabeth Warren.  I'll be thrilled to see Paul Ryan lose both the Vice Presidency and his House seat.

My gut tells me Obama's going to win. My inner milquetoast Democrat is worried, all the same. I think we're going to keep a Democratic Senate (with a slight bump up or down, either way), and still be miles away from winning the House, which will remain obstructionist and looney-tunes. As I said, I'm an atheist, so I don't pray, or really believe in "luck" or "kismet" or "fate." But I'm hoping with all of my crossable parts crossed!

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