Nate Silver's Election Eve 538 Forecast

OMG!!! 

What would cause me to use a 12-year-old's exclamation? Nate Silver, the wunderkind statistician--so good at what he does the New York Times absorbed his FiveThirtyEight.com--has revised his election eve figures. And the news is awesome if you're a Barack Obama supporter. Nate's figures have been an oasis in a desert of bad news during the post-Denver debate, and a continuing boost of confidence during what has been relentlessly called a very tight race. Take a look:

Pretty sweet, right? I mean, that doesn't exactly look like a squeaker, does it? In fact, it makes me feel much, much better. So much, that I might be able to sleep tonight.

Now, I'm not going to get over-confident, and declare that this sucker is over. I mean there are several things to note:

- Even Nate Silver says an 8.6% chance that Romney wins is still a chance. It isn't impossible.

- Nate himself could have gotten overconfident, or forgotten to carry a 2 somewhere.

- Voter suppression efforts in Ohio, Florida and elsewhere could have caused erosion in the vote that doesn't show up in the polls.

- This kind of prediction--if taken too much to heart--could discourage people from bothering to vote. So VOTE!

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

If Texas Secedes, Obama Gets Filibuster-proof Majority

Image from source, FiveThirtyEight

Maybe Texas Governor Rick Perry doesn't care if the US Senate gets a Democratic-controlled filibuster-proof majority. After all, he'd be the President of the Republic of Texas. But I'm betting the Republicans in other states might not be too thrilled with the idea.

[Excerpt]

Hey Rick, Can We Talk?

-- If Texas were not in the Union, the Democrats would currently have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate -- or at least they would once Al Franken gets seated. This is because, in a 98-seat Senate, only 59 votes would be required to break a filibuster.
-- If Texas were not in the Union, the Republicans would operate from a significantly weakened position in the House, since the net 8-vote advantage their congressional delegation gives them in the state (they have 20 seats to the Democrats' 12) is by far their largest. . .

Read more at: FiveThirtyEight.com