Monday, November 5, 2012

Nate Silver's Election Eve 538 Forecast


What would cause me to use a 12-year-old's exclamation? Nate Silver, the wunderkind statistician--so good at what he does the New York Times absorbed his revised his election eve figures. And the news is awesome if you're a Barack Obama supporter. Nate's figures have been an oasis in a desert of bad news during the post-Denver debate, and a continuing boost of confidence during what has been relentlessly called a very tight race. Take a look:

Pretty sweet, right? I mean, that doesn't exactly look like a squeaker, does it? In fact, it makes me feel much, much better. So much, that I might be able to sleep tonight.

Now, I'm not going to get over-confident, and declare that this sucker is over. I mean there are several things to note:

- Even Nate Silver says an 8.6% chance that Romney wins is still a chance. It isn't impossible.

- Nate himself could have gotten overconfident, or forgotten to carry a 2 somewhere.

- Voter suppression efforts in Ohio, Florida and elsewhere could have caused erosion in the vote that doesn't show up in the polls.

- This kind of prediction--if taken too much to heart--could discourage people from bothering to vote. So VOTE!


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