Last election season, Karl Rove--in defiance of polls showing massive Democratic wins--claimed to have "The Math." He knew that Republicans would prevail, or so he said. I believe (and I'm not alone) that Rove was counting on some voting "irregularities" to carry the day, and severely miscalculated.
There is no way to know for sure how much "monkey business" will be made this time around, but one way to be sure to avoid vote tampering is for the margin to be too big to game. Greenlee Gazette investigative reporter, Stupid Monkey Planet is on the case, at least here in Nevada. And the margins this time around, Republican vs. Democrat, look to be too big to beat.
In 2000, the ratio of Democrats to Republican in the Silver State was 389,504 to 388,166. A very slim margin indeed, and George W. Bush managed to prevail by just over 3%. In 2004, the ratio was 383,651 (D) to 382,630 (R), and Bush prevailed again by a little over 5%. To me, this shows a very slight edge in Republican turnout.
But this year, Democrats (including here in Nevada) are extremely energized. Republicans, by and large, seem to be supporting John McCain only grudgingly. And another key difference? In 2008, the ratio is 446,003 (D) to 390,443 (R). Given even a modest lead in turnout by Democrats, it seems a reasonable conclusion that if historical patterns hold, Obama wins, and not just in a squeaker!
Now, I'm no poli-sci major (and neither is the Monkey), but on its face, this is encouraging. Maybe our votes will have an impact nationally for the first time since I've lived here. Of course, this discounts the remainder of voters, of which Nevada holds a large number. I am, however, encouraged by the fact that Stupid Monkey Planet, an Independent, is voting for Barack Obama!
If you want to take your own stab at the math, here are our sources:
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