Sunday, June 24, 2007

We'll Always Have Paris, Part Deaux (France!)


Posted by NevadaJoe
Photo from Wikipedia

The "other" Paris in the news lately is of course the real thing, yep I mean the one over there in France. You know by now that I am an aviation buff of sorts and the Paris Air Show just wrapped up this past weekend. Although I have never attended the show I know it to be a comprehensive showcase for the aircraft manufacturers of the world to market their wares. So if you are in the market for most anything that flies you might want to squeeze it into your schedule next year.

I have to admit one of the reasons I tuned in this year was to see how the Airbus-Boeing rivalry was shaping up. For years Boeing was the champ, no questions asked. And since all good things must come to an end, Boeing was finally bumped into second place by Airbus a few years back. And to be quite honest I thought Airbus would have a comfortable lead for a good long time. As they say in the auto industry (with the exception of Ford), "It's product, product, product." And starting in the early '90s Airbus was pumping out the amazing A-320 family of aircraft and sending them all over the globe. They remain a superior plane and their sales orders have passed 5000 this year. Boeing's competitor to the A-320 family is the 737, and it too is selling like crazy, but largely to the discount carriers. It is efficient but less roomy, and to be honest, it just isn't all it could be.

The A330-340s followed and I thought they would be very successful as well. It was just last year when I started to see the tide turn. The Boeing 777 (which United was the launch customer for) turned out to be a much better plane than I had even realized. Early on I thought Airbus was wise to offer the 4-engined A-340 for the increasing number of flights overseas. From the safety, and flight-planning restrictions the 2-engine aircraft have to adhere to, and the passenger/marketing aspects of 4 versus 2 which Virgin Airlines emphasised, it seemed that Airbus had anticipated the market better than Boeing. But it turned out to be all about economy and the fuel burn of 2 additional engines and Airbus was spanked by the 777. It is a huge seller for Boeing and when the tide turned, it really turned. Nearly everyone was buying the 777 which by then had a stretch version, the -300. Throw in the variants for Extended Range and Longer Range and you had a product most every airline could use. Of late the A330 has seen a surge of interest and will become a good seller as it is a good plane.

And the whole world knows about the new A-380. A wonderful plane that suffered from manufacturing ills. It will take to the Sky over 2 years late and the financial hit Airbus has to absorb from the associated liabilities is staggering. Time will prove the plane to be a technical marvel and the airlines flying them will be more than satisfied. That said, it seems the market for such a large plane is limited and the Boeing 747-8 series will eat into their potential sales. End result is a good plane that will have to struggle to find the buyers needed to help them reach the break-even point for Airbus.

The most contentious fight between the giants is Dreamliner/787 from Boeing versus Airbus' A-350. Boeing has hit a home run and I think they have sold over 600 before the first one has even rolled off the factory floor. And speaking of which, July 8th is the official unveiling of the 787 (get it, 07-08-07). It has too many features to mention here, but it looks to be a good replacement for the 767s and 300s out there. Unfortunately for Airbus their A-350-EWB as it is now called after two returns to the drawing boards will follow the 787 by 5 years. It should be a typically excellent aircraft from Airbus and will sell well. They are positioning it against both the 777 and the 787 which is a tall order though. It will be worth keeping our eyes on that plane.

So, how did the air show go? Boeing entered the week with almost 400 orders more than Airbus and ended the week with about 75 less I think. Airbus tends to go for the gusto in Paris, and Boeing seems to be less focused on pushing their sales that week. I am anticipating the sales tally to be close throughout the year with Boeing edging out Airbus as '07 draws to a close. And even if they don't I am still amazed how Boeing's fortunes have turned for the better since 2004.
FROM THE EDITOR: USA! USA! Tough luck, you cheese-eating surrender monkeys! (Hey, how else am I going to get FOX "News" fans to read my blog?)

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