The suddenly steady stream of fast response ads from Barack Obama has buoyed my spirits a little. I'm still waiting for a tough, unmerciful offense from Obama, but this is better than much of the last two weeks or so.
I continue to be baffled at the upward tick for John McCain in polls and electoral projections though. I know the polling in many cases is somewhat suspect, and have explained that here. But the fact that it is close enough to look close, is most unusual. The only thing McCain has going for him is Sarah Palin, who has captured conservatives' fancy in a most unusual and inexplicable way. Will she turn out to be a flavor of the month? Will she have a Geraldine Ferrarro-style flame-out? I hope so, but in the meantime, I hope Obama keeps up the defense, and builds a stronger offense.
I would have to agree with the suspect nature of polling. They still have yet to figure a way to calculate the new technologies (i.e. cell phones, email, etc.) that are rampant in our society, especially among politically-minded people. I, for one, do not even own a landline, good luck surveying me unless NBC knocks on my door. In addition, analyst Chuck Todd, this very morning, finally talked about the huge increase in newly registered democrats in battleground states. This is the first I've really heard of it in the mainstream media. This might be good though, an opponent who underestimates you risks their victory through poor planning. Keep up the good work Greenlee!!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the kind words. I'm pretty sure the polling is not only wrong, but destined to improve for Obama rather than McCain.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm hopelessly optimistic, but historically, the party in power when the shit hits the fan is OUT at the next election. This wasn't true in 2004, but we had a weak candidate and a fresh-ish war at the time.
Also, the rapturous infatuation with Sarah Palin absolutely HAS to fade, at least a little, from its current stratospheric high. That kind of baseless emotion simply cannot be sustained at current levels.
We still have debates, October Surprises, and 527s to deal with between now and November 4th. Ample time for Obama to turn the tables. Let's hope he's fed up with how it's going, and really comes out swinging.