Polls: How Accurate Are They?

Image from source, Huffington Post

Now, I know there are right-wingers out there who would read the above headline and cackle, "Sour grapes! Jealous much?" That's not the point of this post at all. I'd be lying if I said I was happy about the polls of the last couple of days, but I'm also not ready to panic. And there is something about them that rings false to me.

Since Barack Obama and John McCain each became the presumptive nominees, the polls have been generally consistent. Obama was ahead by a little--and only a little--for the whole run. This lead to choruses of "Why can't Obama close the deal?" In several posts, I wondered aloud (with no answer forthcoming), how are these polls structured? Do they account for a larger than usual Democratic base? Do they account for a more enthusiastic Democratic base?

There simply has been very little "middle" to move, with a starkly divided electorate. That little middle seemed to flock to Obama after his big speech. And after McCain's unlikely choice of VP and his convention, he swayed some back, which would put it just about where it started. And some of the polls reflect that.

But many more polls have McCain ahead for the first time, some by alarming numbers. It was hard for me to believe that a standard-issue convention plus the dramatic introduction of Sarah Palin was itself enough to sway the numbers as far as they did. Would actual Obama supporters actually have swung for Caribou Barbie?

Maybe not. Take a look at this.

[Excerpt]

Poll Madness: McCain Takes Lead Even As Democrats Out-Register Republicans?

This week's mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup's tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, raising a question of methodology. . .

Read more at: Huffington Post